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Is Chinese Economic Growth Stalling?

Brian Sturgess - October 2011

The picture of continuing robust manufacturing and GDP growth indicated by official statistics is very different to the stagnant picture suggested by recent data from both the HSBC Purchasing Managers Survey and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) survey. Which view is the most believable?

The Data Problem


The latest official figures show continuing strong growth in Chinese industrial output. The BNS reported that for the first half of 2011 the total value added of industrial enterprises  [2] had increased by 14.3% year-on-year, only slightly down from a rise of 14.4% in the first quarter of the year. All the 39 industrial divisions measured registered year-on-year growth. In August, the total value added of manufacturing was up by 13.5%, only slightly down by 0.5% from the year-on-year figure for July. Industrial profits for the first eight months of 2011 rose by 28.2% year-on-year. [3]

A much more pessimistic pic...

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