World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Measuring Global Economic Activity and GDP

Measuring GDP in North and South America

  • The use of different national income standards across the Americas has an impact on cross-country comparability. In the USA the application of the latest standard in 2013 added 3.6% to measured GDP.
  • Most American countries use a national income accounting standard that fails to record the informal economy which could accounts for between 8 and 64% of GDP in countries across the region.
  • Many countries have seriously out of date base years and World Economics estimates that bringing these up to date could add nearly US$1 trillion to aggregate GDP for the group as a whole.
  • The most unreliable economic data is produced in Argentina which has manipulated inflation and GDP statistics since 2007 artificially raising real GDP by an estimated 12.2% in 2012.
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Data Releases - Sales Managers Indexes

New from World Economics: The Sales Managers' Index: Americas

  JANUARY 2017
This Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers throughout the entire continent of The Americas to produce the earliest and only source of understanding about what’s really happening throughout the continents.

The Sales Managers' Index: United States of America

  JANUARY 2017
United States of America 
The SMI Headline Index registered a value of 52.5 in January, up from the value in December. Business Confidence improve further but is still low while sales growth also stayed at modest levels.
New from World Economics: The Sales Managers' Index: Mexico

  JANUARY 2017
The Sales Managers’ Indexes, taken as a whole, shows that the Mexican economy grew in January with a headline SMI of 51.5, from 50.6 in December.

The Sales Managers' Index: Latin America

  JANUARY 2017
Latin America 
The SMI registered 49.5 in January indicating that economic activity in the region is continuing in recession. Business confidence has continued to grow and monthly product sales are registering further growth.

New from World Economics: The Sales Managers' Index: NAFTA

  January 2017
The composite NAFTA Sales Managers’ Index is the best source of understanding about what’s really happening throughout the entire trading bloc.

Data Releases - Growth Trackers

Growth Tracker: United States

  January 2016
Growth Tracker: United States
US. GDP rose at an annualised rate of 3.5% in Q3 2016, compared to 1.4% in Q2 2016. University of Michigan consumer confidence survey accelerated further in December to 98.0 as NFP stood at 146million.

Papers on North America

  Equity Returns Assumptions Remain Totally Unrealistic
Equity returns over long periods of time are unlikely to significantly exceed real GDP per capita growth rates which have averaged around 2% in Europe and the USA over the last fifty years.

  The Change in Corporate Behaviour
Deficit finance is needed to offset ex-ante savings’ surpluses and provides an adequate solution, provided that the surpluses are cyclical. Today additional policies are needed because the surplus in the business sector has become structural.

  Why Hasn’t the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective?
This paper evaluates alternative empirical approaches to measuring the impact of fiscal policy and presents new results based on simulations of a large econometric model of the US economy.

  It’s Time to Retire the US Military’s Retirement System
The paper uses previous studies that reflect service members’ ‘value’ of retirement pensions and US Department of Defense net present value assumptions to prove his case and demonstrate how the DoD can save tens of billions of US dollars.

  The Temptation for Protectionism and American Trade Policy
The Great Recession of 2007–2009 originated in the United States and quickly spread throughout the economies of Canada and Europe. Soon these countries imported fewer goods produced by emerging countries and the crisis became global. International trade collapsed at a pace unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Papers on Latin America

  Argentina’s Inflation Data Problems
Argentina has published its new consumer price index showing prices rose in January 2014 by 3.7% compared to unofficial estimates of 4.1%. The government has manipulated official inflation statistics since 2007.

  Argentina’s Inflation Data Problems
This paper reproduces Argentine national income from 2007 using standard methods and original sector data and finds that declared GDP is 12.2% higher in 1993 prices due to political intervention.

  The Argentine Productivity Slowdown
This research proposes a methodology in order to identify TFP gains in the strict sense of positive shifts in the production function, independent of short-run cyclical fluctuations in the utilization of productive factors and relative prices effects.

  Finance, Technology and Multinationals from the Periphery
An analyses of the emergence of Latin American multinational corporations, with a particular emphasis on the roles of finance and technology. It is established that the need to acquire foreign technology and finance has played a key role in their emergence.

  Economic Growth in Venezuela
An empirical analysis of Venezuela’s economic growth in the last several decades, providing possible explanations for the country’s weak performance relative to its peers.

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