World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Measuring Global Economic Activity and GDP

The Sales Managers Index: India

Released: March 21, 2017

March Indian Sales Managers’ Index Shows Growth Bouncing Back as Sales Start to Recover From Demonetisation

  • Panel members report confidence, sales and market data all recovering from demonetisation
  • Price inflation remains close to February’s 4 year high
  • Small and medium size business sales bore brunt of demonetisation

The Indian Sales Managers Index (SMI) for March, shows that the Indian economy is in recovery mode from December’s demonetisation policy. The abrupt impact of demonetisation hit small and medium size businesses hard as they predominately rely on cash based transactions. The March Headline SMI increased to an index level of 62.9 from 60.2 in unadjusted terms. Sales growth, as reported by the unadjusted Sales Growth Index, has improved from 57.3 in February to 61.9 in March and coupled with a strong uptick in the Business Confidence Index suggests that the demonetisation impact has started to wear off.

Price inflation, as measured by the Prices Charged Index, remains very strong and just below the 4 year high reported in February. Higher inflation in the consumer goods and services sectors, represented by the Prices Charged Index for Services (59.6), is pushing the valuation of the Rupee to even greater levels of undervaluation on the World Price Index (WPI) scale. The WPI under valuation level for the Indian Rupee is currently -44%, using March data. Businesses are taking advantage of the situation created by such an undervalued currency, with the majority of panel members feeling that the current FX level remains advantageous for their businesses, as expressed by the Rupee Strength Index growing to 57.5.

Overall, March SMI data suggests an improving situation for Indian businesses in March, with growing sales and enhanced levels of confidence.

Headline Sales Managers' Index

Business Confidence Index

Sales Growth Index

Prices Charged Index

About India SMI Data

The Sales Managers Index provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of Indian economic activity.

Key advantages of the India SMI:
  • The SMI provides the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth in India.
  • The SMI provides the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI is based on a key occupational group - uniquely able to sense changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI is composite index of business confidence, market growth, sales, prices charged and staffing levels.
  • The SMI is a diffusion index, any index value above 50 indicates growth and below 50 indicates contraction.

Receive next month’s report early:

Your email address:

© Copyright World Economics Ltd. 2017