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Gasoline Price Index - May Update
The World Economics Gasoline Price Index (GPI) is based on average end-use prices for RON-95 Gasoline in national currencies indexed to January 2011 = 100.
Eurozone Growth Monitor - May Update
Latest data shows the Eurozone is still in recession, contracting by a further -1.0% in Q1 2013 compared to the same period a year ago. Leading indicators suggest the outlook may be improving slightly while consumer confidence remains at rock bottom levels, except in Germany.
India Growth Monitor - May Update
Latest quarterly data for Q4 2012 shows the Indian economy grew by 4.5% year on year compared to Q4 2011. Leading indicators confirm current growth and suggest a positive outlook.
United States Growth Monitor - May Update
Latest figures show real GDP grew 1.8% in Q1 2013 compared with Q1 2012. Consumer confidence continues to remain low. Leading indicators suggest growth is likely to continue in the short term.
China Growth Monitor - May Update
Q1 2013 GDP data shows economic activity continuing to rise at 7.7% year on year, slightly down on last year’s average. Some indicators remain positive including total exports and business surveys. Leading indicators point towards growth but at a slightly lower rate.
Divergent Europe: Coming apart at the seams
The economic performance of Germany and France, Italy and Spain has diverged since the financial crisis of 2008. It is suggested that the economic imbalances cannot be resolved automatically within the constraint of a single currency without central control over fiscal deficits or a convergence of GDP growth rates.
Are poor Germans supporting rich Spaniards?
The European Central Bank has published a survey of household wealth across the euro area which provides further evidence of the enormous economic imbalances existing across the currency area. The survey of more than 62,000 households in 15 euro area countries indicates that German households had the lowest level of median net wealth at €51,400.
The World Price Index - April 2013
The WPI provides a monthly index of PPP exchange rates against the US Dollar across the world’s 10 largest economies. April data reports that the Euro in France is overvalued by almost 30% in relation to the dollar whilst the German Euro is only marginally overvalued on the same yardstick.

Sales Managers' Indexes

		April 2013 The Sales Managers' Index: US American market growth remains strong in April with business confidence at a high. Staffing levels continue to increase but only at a modest pace.
		april 2013 The Sales Managers' Index: Africa The Headline Sales Managers’ Index shows that over the past year, economic growth in the African continent has been very vigorous.
		April 2013 The Sales Managers' Index: China The China Growth Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers throughout China to produce the earliest (and we believe best) source of understanding about what’s really happening in the Chinese economy.
		April 2013 The Sales Managers' Index: India The seasonally adjusted headline SMI for April of 65.2 continues to be consistent with strong real growth in the economy over the last month.
		April 2013 The Sales Managers' Index: Latin America The Latin American economy performs strongly in April with market growth figures suggesting rapid expansion.
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Data Papers

		The End of Population Growth Author: Sanjeev Sanyal The global fertility rate is declining much more rapidly than anyone anticipated. Human population may keep growing for a few more decades due to increases in longivity but, in reproductively speaking, the human species will no longer be replacing itself within fifteen years. Thus, world population is likely to peak much sooner than conventional forecasts followed by a sharp decline.
		The Dire State of Government Accounting: Making Enron look good Author: Ian Ball and Gary Pflugrath As the current sovereign debt crisis engulfing Europe broadens and threatens to bring down more governments. World Economics addresses this by looking at governments account procedures.
		The Shadow Economy and Shadow Economy Labour Force Author: Friedrich Schneider World Economics focuses on the development and the size of the shadow economy and of undeclared work (or shadow economy labour force) in OECD, developing and transition countries.
		Measuring Africa Author: Joe Downie In the light of unreliable official statistics and the highly selective information often presented by investment companies with an incentive to highlight the positive, this article aims to provide some extra analysis to add to the recent widespread comments on high growth rates within the continent.
		Are Multi-Nationals Really Bigger than Nations? Author: Paul De Grauwe & Filip Camerman An analysis of the size of large corporations and recent company trends. Using value-added data the report finds that multinationals are surprisingly small compared to the GDP of many nation-states.
		Chinese Savings Data Author: Guonan Ma & Wang Yi World Economics argues that tough corporate restructuring, a marked Lewis model transformation process and rapid ageing process have all played more important roles in increasing the Chinese saving rate.
		The World is Not Flat Author: Philippe De Lombaerde & P. Lelio Iapadre This paper reviews different proposals for the measurement of globalisation, arguing that available composite indicators, although going beyond a purely economic definition of international integration, fail to perform their task adequately for a variety of conceptual and methodological reasons.
		Debt: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences Author: Susan Lund & Charles Roxburgh An assessment of the increase in debt and leverage in ten mature economies and four emerging economies – breaking down that data by each country’s financial, household, non-financial business and government sectors.
		House Price Indices: Does Measurement Matter? Author: Mick Silver Mick Silver of the International Monetary Fund discusses the importance of house price indices.

Editors Choice - The World Economy

		Reflections on the Crisis in Greece World Economics assesses the factors that explain the severity of the ongoing recession in Greece and examines whether a less costly approach to resolving the crisis is available.
		Olympic Glory in Proportion With academics vying for the glory of correctly predicting the Olympic medal count using complex models, Dr Craig Nevill-Manning has instead produced a series of simple rankings based on the current medal count and GDP and population data.
		Bridging the Economic Divide Between Anglophone and Francophone Africa World Economics looks at the commercial chasm which remains to be bridged between Francophone and Anglophone Africa. While the continent is enjoying strong economic growth its potential is shackled by persistent problems relating to currency exchange and bank transactions.
		The Euro Crisis: No More Safe Havens Josh Rosner argues that German long-term bunds are not the safe haven that many have talked them up as, and that in fact the long-term underlying indicators of the German economy do not support the idea that bunds are a low-risk long-term investment.
		The Eurozone and the Political Economy of Monetary Disintegration There are now serious concerns that Greece, and possibly other countries, may have to leave the Eurozone in the coming months, beginning a process that could even lead to the EU unravelling. World Economics takes a look at how this happened, why and what can be done.
		The Human Development Index (HDI) An illustration of the difficulties faced when building economic indices.
		Indian Wholesale & Consumer Price Indices The creation of the new index is a delayed response to the findings of the National Statistical Commission which found deficiencies in the existing systems of price data collection and the compilation of indices.

Global Data Releases

		April 2013 World Price Index The WPI provides a monthly index of PPP exchange rates against the US Dollar across the world’s 10 largest economies.
		april 2013 Global Marketing Index The headline GMI reading which takes into account marketers’ expectations for trading conditions, marketing budgets and staffing recorded a value of 56.5 in April. This represents a slight decline from March’s reading of 56.9.
		annual update: 2013 Global Growth Monitor World Economics research shows that the global economy grew for 50 out of the past 51 years. The World Economy grew at 3.6% per year between 1960-2012, and at close to 2% in per capita terms.

Growth Monitors

		China May 2013 Q1 2013 GDP data shows economic activity continuing to rise at 7.7% year on year, slightly down on last year’s average. Some indicators remain positive including total exports.
		Commonwealth JANUARY 2013 The World Economics Commonwealth Growth Monitor contrasts the accelerating economic growth of the Commonwealth, with the 5 decade long decline in the rate of growth of the EU.
		Eurozone MAY 2013 Data shows the Eurozone is still in recession, contracting by a further -1.0% in Q1 2013 compared to the same period a year ago. Leading indicators suggest the outlook may be improving though.
		India MAY 2013 Latest quarterly data for Q4 2012 shows the Indian economy grew by 4.5% year on year compared to Q4 2011. Leading indicators confirm current growth and suggest a positive outlook.
		United States may 2013 Latest figures show real GDP grew 1.8% in Q1 2013 compared with Q1 2012. Consumer confidence continues to remain low. Leading indicators suggest growth is likely to continue in the short term.
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Eurozone Crisis Monitor

The chart above shows the huge variation in government bond yields (and implied investor perception of relative risk), before the creation of the Euro, and the subsequent re-emergence of variation following the collapse of Lehman. The chart illustrates vividly the evolution of the Eurozone crisis, and will be updated monthly.

Spotlight on Africa

		Counting the Bottom Billion What do the statistics from the international databases tell us about income and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Less than we would like to think. World Economics looks from a starting point in per capita GDP estimates in Africa.
		Wealth and Population Data in Africa. Estimates of GDP/capita are flawed World Economics examines the grounds for challenging much of the conventionally accepted UN and World Bank economic data relating to both the absolute and relative per capita income of many African countries and to their growth rates.
		Gabon's Economic Potential Gabon: 50 years after independence from France will its market orientated strategy to achieve emerging nation status be realised?
		Trade Out of Poverty Integration into the world economy has proven a powerful means for countries to promote economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. Governments need to focus on trade policy towards developing countries to improve the lives of the poorest
		Boosting Infrastructure Investments in Africa The absolute and relative lack of infrastructure in Africa suggests that the continent’s competitiveness could be boosted by scaling up investments in infrastructure.

Most Recent Papers

		APRIL 2013 Are poor Germans supporting rich Spaniards? The European Central Bank has published a survey of household wealth across the euro area which provides further evidence of the enormous economic imbalances existing across the currency area. The survey of more than 62,000 households in 15 euro area countries indicates that German households had the lowest level of median net wealth at €51,400. Read more...
		APRIL 2013 Poor Chinese Consumption Data Creates Savings Myth Chinese official statistics underestimate consumption expenditure on housing, they omit consumption paid for as benefits by the corporate sector and there are a number of problems with the household expenditure surveys. An adjustment for statistical issues suggests that the rate of consumption is 60-65% of GDP and not the 48% based on quoted official statistics figures. Read more...
		APRIL 2013 Nigerian GDP to rise by 50 percent on improved measurement Economic statistics for many African countries are seriously deficient. In Ghana an improvement in evaluating economic activity, mainly in the Services sector, added 60% to the size of measured GDP in 2010. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous, and second largest economy is in the process of carrying out a similar revaluation of its national economic activity which is expected to raise measured GDP by around 50%. Read more...
		MARCH 2013 Equity Returns Assumptions Remain Totally Unrealistic The equity returns expected by private and public pension funds remain over optimistic with projected real returns double or treble more realistic levels. Real GDP per capita growth rates in the USA and Europe have averaged around 2% in Europe and the USA over the last fifty years, but there are many reasons why average growth will be lower in coming decades. Read more...
		MARCH 2013 The “Good Global Citizen” remit of the IMF: reforming international economic and financial cooperation In the highly globalized world economy of our times, where markets are tightly integrated, setting domestic economic policy with a view simply to keeping one’s house in order is no longer optimal. New responsibilities follow for each member of the community of countries from the recognition that the action by one may affect the others. These mutual responsibilities form the core of what we call the ‘Good Global Citizen’ remit of the IMF, a reformed framework for international economic and financial cooperation. Read more...

Spotlight:

Growing US trade imbalance with China

There has been remarkable growth in the level of US imports from China, which is creating a growing trade imbalance.

The UK Bank Rate (1694-2012)

Classic Papers from the Archive

		What do Economists Know? Economists can be confident about quite a lot of what they do think they know, even when they are disbelieved by large parts of the public not to mention political leaders and policy makers. Sir Alan Budd revisits some fundamentals.
		How to Tackle Poverty This article argues that, beyond the headline-grabbing generalities, development economists are building up a detailed body of empirical evidence specific to individual countries which will shape more effective policy interventions in the years ahead.
		The Economics of Epidemics An analysis of the economic implications of the Great Plague in the fourteenth century, the 1918–19 influenza epidemic, the HIV/AIDS curse and SARS to demonstrate the short- and long-term effects of different kinds of epidemics.
		The Value of Vaccination Despite advances during the twentieth century, immunization coverage is far from universal and faces significant obstacles in both developing and developed countries. The paper shows that the economic effects via improved health - have been underestimated, thereby causing the rate of return to be underestimated.
		How Many Wildebeest do You Need? A close look at the Wildlife Act, by pandering to the welfare lobby, the act removes all remaining incentives for communities and landowners to keep wildlife on their land.
		The Economics of Copyright A review of the economic issues behind copyright and how these are challenged by changes in technology and market structure
		The Case for Narrow Banking The paper argues that regulatory reform should emphasise systemic resilience and robustness, not more detailed behaviour prescription.

		The Costs of Violent Crime A review of a number of studies that have sought to estimate the economic costs of criminal offending and, more specifically, violent crime.
		An Economic Analysis of the Mafia This paper reviews the current economic thinking on the Mafia phenomenon and distinguishes the Mafia from ordinary criminal gangs by the desire of the exclusive right to commit criminal acts.
		Weapons Exports - The Bogus Moral Dilemma Samuel Brittan argues that "unaffordable" ethical arms exports arise from a failure to understand the circular flow of income, the fallacy of a "lump of labour" and a long discredited mercantilist view of trade.
		Measuring Global Drug Markets The continuing demand for measures of the size of global drug revenues has produced a supply of numbers that consistently overstate international financial flows. This paper shows that, rather than $500 billion, the annual figure in trade terms may be about $25 billion.