Released: 30 August 2020
August Sales Data Shows Global Growth is Still Far Below pre Covid Levels
The three key countries driving Global Growth have continued to suffer from the impact of Covid-19
Three countries (China, the USA and India) have generated over 60% of global growth in recent years. All continue to suffer from the impact of Covid -19.
China was the first into lockdown and the first of the three to recover. The economy is most likely still operating just below pre-Covid levels, but business confidence is rising rapidly, and full recovery likely before the 4th quarter.
The USA went into lockdown significantly later than China and is still suffering the dramatic impact of the virus. The slower reaction, poor crisis management and resurgence of the virus mean the US economy is likely to continue to shrink in comparison with the same period last year for the remainder of Q3. Unemployment remains very high and appears likely to remain so for some time.
India went into lockdown even later than the US, and is currently suffering from the virus to a far greater extent than either China or the US, due to the somewhat primitive medical system, and the impossibility of implementing social distancing in many parts of the many giant Indian cities.
The World Economics Global Sales Managers Index, is designed to show the combined impact of these three biggest influences on global growth. The August data shows that the economies of China, the USA and India in combination, far from driving growth, remain in decline. All the Global Sales Indexes registered numbers under the 50 "no growth" level in August after devastating declines in the previous three months.
Perhaps most significant of all the Sales Indexes this month , the Global Market Growth Index recorded a figure still firmly below the 50 'no growth" level, reflecting a further decline in economic activity after the falls recorded in April, May, June and July. Although the rate of decline has flattened, many of the various industrial and services markets in all three countries recorded reduced activity levels.
The key Staffing Index remained far below the 50 level for the fourth consecutive month. This Index compares activity in August compared with the situation one year ago, and illustrates the harsh global reality of millions of lost jobs over the March-August period of 2020.
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