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The Numbers Racket

Devoted to illuminating the perilous state of economic data

How GDP Numbers Artificially Inflate Comparative Growth of Developed Countries

We show how the assumption that GDP calculation is done in line with economic theory is incorrect – and that the changes made to GDP measurement over the past two decades...

How to Decimate a Country in Less Than 20 Years

In 1960, Italy’s GDP was 15% smaller than France’s, and 27% lower than the average of Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France’s combined. However, this country enjoyed steady growth until the start of the 1990s as Italian household income caught up with the period’s norm for the other eurozone nations, so much so that around 1995 France and Italy’s GDPs converged and there came to be only a 6% difference between the average of the countries mentioned...

The European Union Must Defend Andreas Georgiou

Nicolas Veron argues that the relentless prosecutions against Georgiou are more than a matter of shameful harassment by Greece. Georgiou’s case also raises disturbing questions about the integrity of European statistical processes...

Modi-fication of Indian Data As Jobs Problem Emerges

Worrying signs have emerged over the last few months, that the rapid growth of recent years may be slowing down, and that India may have a jobs crisis in the making...

Most Read - Last 3 Years

Lords of Poverty

Neither Oxfam or the USA appears keen to see Rwanda start up a garment business. Here's why...

Measuring Hyperinflation:
Venezuela's Episode

Venezuela now exhibits the 57th historic episode of hyperinflation as measured in the Hanke–Krus World Hyperinflation Table. Entry to the hyperinflation dataset depends on three qualifying criteria...

GDP Revisions Rewrite Economic History

Revisions of national accounts affect economic analysis, calling into question theoretical findings based on earlier data. Revisions to German national accounts have resulted in a markedly higher GDP in absolute terms and a lower volatility in ...

HOW TO SURVIVE A COMPLIMENT IN CHINA

Andrew Methven considers the subtle nuances of language and how behaviour are an important part of dealing with China, but often totally missed. Receiving or giving a compliment is one example of a cultural minefield for the uninitiated (or even quite experienced) foreigner there...

Time to Overhaul Global Trade Estimates

The rise of global production networks since the 1980s changed the way we understand international trade and has profound repercussions on development policies and the conduct of global governance. New comparative advantages allow large developing countries to leap...

How Accurate Are China's National Balance Sheets?

The accuracy of data on China’s national balance sheets has attracted much less attention than that of the Gross Domestic Product reports. China’s Bureau of National Statistics has not released official national balance sheets, but two research teams...

Analysis of revisions in Indian GDP Data

This paper studies constant price growth estimates of India's annual GDP data in order to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistics Office. The used of high-frequency indicators...

Errors in Demographic and Other Quantitative Data

Statistical data consumed, anylised and produced contain errors from more sources than is often recognised and the commercialisation of survey and other statistical research and 'inventions' such as 'big data' has led to naive...