Sales Managers Index Reflects
Emerging Global Growth

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: November 19, 2024

World economic activity continues to grow when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes, in the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India). After the falling growth rates registered over the last 9 months, November broke the trend, with rapid growth in India, renewed growth in the USA and emerging growth in China combining to produce a significant rise in almost all the global indexes.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

For most recent decades these three countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of total global growth, and in reality, probably significantly more, as the "rest of the world" in this case includes many countries with less reliable and often inflated data. In any event, if survey results from these three countries collectively are looking good, as is currently the case, prospects for economic activity in the world as a whole are very likely to be positive. And these data provide a good indication that the world has avoided the much-predicted worldwide recession brought on by rising interest rates.

Only one caution to be noted when reviewing these data. The US growth numbers that feed into the Global Indexes, are quite unusual in the sense they were researched immediately after President-to-be Trump won the US Presidential election. All the Sales Managers Indexes US survey results jumped significantly.

over the two weeks following the election. Whether this was confidence engendered by knowing the uncertainty caused by the election was over, or by business wide elation over the result, or some other factor is not known. However, it is possible this was a freak increase in the data caused by the conjunction with the election. Next month's data should resolve the question...

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.