Released: 01 June 2021
Global Growth Falters - May Sales Indexes Show Jobs and Profits Remain Below Pre-Covid Levels
The V shaped global recovery from the trauma of Covid is faltering. Although activity in many business sectors is now approaching, at, or over pre-Covid levels, Sales Managers report this month two major components of economic growth that remain significantly below even the low levels recorded a year ago.
The Sales Managers Indexes for both Job levels and Profit Margins report on activity in May compared with the same month one year ago. Both Indexes remain just below 49, indicating that there is still some way to go before economic activity recovers to the levels of May 2020. It should be noted that activity levels in May 2020, were for many indicators of economic activity at levels that now look like the bottom of the V shaped recession Covid, so the although May Sales Managers data suggests that although Confidence levels have regained pre Covid highs, and some sectors are doing well , many others remain mired in recession.
Our conclusion is therefore that the near perfect V shapes now showing on so many indicator chart , are far from painting a realistic picture of economic activity in relation to levels seen in late 2019. Rather they suggest that economic activity is recovering on a global scale, but very slowly.
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