Trump's Return Continues to Buoy the US Economy

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: January 20, 2025

After Trumps November election win, the US Sales Managers Survey recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence. In December the impact slowed, but only marginally. In January, again a small reduction in optimism, but overall, all indexes have remained above their pre-election levels levels. Even before becoming President, Trump has boosted confidence in both present and future focussed indexes, something never seen in the Sales Managers Indexes long history.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

With the newly crowned President Trump taking office the week after this index is to be published, with a promised set of tariff measures many see as extreme, plus a raft of other measures likely to significantly impact on economic activity in ways not previously much explored, any kind of suggestion as to what may happen once president Trump actually gets his hands on the levers of economic policy can only be pure guesswork. But for now, the economy looks as if its running ahead rather sweetly.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.