The US Sales Managers Survey results for April reflect the chaos produced by the huge and erratic on/off US tariff changes seen over the past month. The exuberance that followed the Trump election win has now vanished. Sales Managers responses reflect serious worries about the impact of the seemingly incoherent policy changes.
Business Confidence has plumeted from an index reading of 54.1 in November to an 18 month low of 47.2 in April, a giant 6.9 index points fall of unheard of proportions.The Sales Growth Index has fallen to a 27 month low, a massive drop of 6.4 index points. The Staffing Index is down 5.9 index points to a 31 month low. The overall Sales Managers Index is down to an almost 3 year low, with an Index reading of 49 (down from 54.4 in November), indicating recessionary conditions.
The only index that has risen over the month is the Price Index, up to an Index reading of 56, an 18 month high, bearing the equally unwelcome news that price inflation is once again rampant.
In summary, there is little doubt that the continuous stream of edicts pouring out of the US President's office on a daily basis are causing uncertainty in the business community on a scale never before seen outside wartime. Unless the uncertainty diminishes, a serious recession in economic activity is likely to result.
The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.
The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.
Key advantages of the SMI's:
SMI data for the ~USA is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.
Monthly data since 2011 is downloadable for all-sectors in a consistent unadjusted format for 6 key indexes: