US Economic Activity Nosedives in April

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: April 16, 2025

The US Sales Managers Survey results for April reflect the chaos produced by the huge and erratic on/off US tariff changes seen over the past month. The exuberance that followed the Trump election win has now vanished. Sales Managers responses reflect serious worries about the impact of the seemingly incoherent policy changes.

Business Confidence has plumeted from an index reading of 54.1 in November to an 18 month low of 47.2 in April, a giant 6.9 index points fall of unheard of proportions.The Sales Growth Index has fallen to a 27 month low, a massive drop of 6.4 index points. The Staffing Index is down 5.9 index points to a 31 month low. The overall Sales Managers Index is down to an almost 3 year low, with an Index reading of 49 (down from 54.4 in November), indicating recessionary conditions.

The only index that has risen over the month is the Price Index, up to an Index reading of 56, an 18 month high, bearing the equally unwelcome news that price inflation is once again rampant.

United States Business Confidence Index: April 2025 Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

In summary, there is little doubt that the continuous stream of edicts pouring out of the US President's office on a daily basis are causing uncertainty in the business community on a scale never before seen outside wartime. Unless the uncertainty diminishes, a serious recession in economic activity is likely to result.



Sales Managers Index Components



0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|59.1, 60.4, 57.9, 57, 54, 55.6, 53.8, 53.9, 53.9, 53, 52.6, 48.6, 41, 38, 45, 48.3, 50.4, 50.8, 49, 49.7, 51.2, 52.3, 51.7, 52.7, 52.4, 54.6, 53.6, 53.9, 52.1, 52.1, 52.2, 55, 54.8, 54.6, 50.7, 50, 50.7, 51, 49.7, 50, 50, 50.7, 53.2, 51.6, 51.4, 50, 50.3, 50.4, 51.4, 50, 50.7, 46.8, 48.3, 51.4, 46.9, 52.4, 51.2, 48.8, 53.4, 54.6, 53.7, 51.2, 50.4, 49.6, 50, 48.3, 49, 54.1, 53.7, 52.6, 50.9, 52.1, 47.2 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

47.2
April 2025
The Business Confidence Index declined to an 18 month low in April.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales managers for future conditions.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|56.8, 56.4, 54.2, 53.9, 52.2, 54, 53.4, 52.7, 51.9, 51.9, 51.4, 49.7, 40.6, 35.1, 42.3, 47.9, 49.6, 50.8, 50.3, 50, 52.1, 53.4, 51, 51.7, 51, 52, 52, 55.1, 54.2, 53.2, 52.9, 53.9, 53.4, 54.6, 50, 50, 49.6, 51.7, 51, 50.6, 51, 52.6, 54.6, 51.9, 51.1, 50, 53.1, 52.3, 52.8, 50.7, 53.6, 51.1, 53.5, 53.8, 54.9, 55.1, 54.1, 51.3, 54.1, 54.2, 53.3, 53.3, 54.2, 52.5, 53.4, 53, 53.5, 55, 54.5, 54.3, 53.4, 52.9, 52.4 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

52.4
April 2025
Market Growth continued to slow in April.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|54.4, 54.7, 52.7, 54.6, 53.1, 53.6, 52.1, 51.2, 53.9, 52.7, 52, 48.9, 42.5, 34.3, 43.2, 43.6, 48.8, 53.5, 50, 50.7, 51.2, 53.7, 52, 52.3, 51.7, 51.6, 53, 55.1, 54.5, 53.2, 53.3, 55.4, 53.1, 55.3, 53.6, 49.6, 51.8, 52.1, 50, 49.7, 50.3, 53.3, 53.5, 52.8, 51.4, 48.9, 54.1, 51.5, 50.7, 50.7, 52.9, 50.7, 53.5, 52.1, 53.8, 53.7, 51.2, 50.8, 53.2, 53.5, 52.5, 52.4, 53.3, 52.9, 53, 52.2, 52, 56.4, 54.5, 52.6, 51.7, 52.9, 50 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

50.0
April 2025
The Sales Growth Index value stopped registered: 50 - 'no growth'.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services (current month from previous month).
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|55.4, 52, 50, 52.5, 55.3, 53.6, 55.9, 55.8, 54.7, 55.1, 54.6, 51.7, 49.1, 40.1, 43.7, 47.9, 52.8, 52.4, 52.9, 56.5, 56.2, 57.4, 54.4, 56, 55.8, 57.2, 57, 58.4, 57.6, 56.4, 55.1, 59.7, 58.2, 58.2, 58, 57.7, 53.2, 55.2, 56.3, 53.2, 54.5, 56.6, 56, 56.6, 55, 52.8, 55.8, 56.4, 54.2, 54.8, 55.4, 54.9, 57.6, 54.1, 56.9, 54.1, 53.3, 53.3, 52.9, 52.3, 55.8, 54.5, 55.4, 54.9, 55.2, 54.3, 53, 55, 54.1, 52.6, 53.4, 53.8, 56 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

56.0
April 2025
Prices Charged grew at the fastest pace in 13 months in April.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|54.1, 52, 51.5, 49.3, 47.8, 50.8, 50, 50, 51.9, 50.3, 48.9, 44.2, 42.9, 31, 33.8, 36.4, 45.1, 47.6, 43.6, 45.4, 50.4, 46.6, 45, 49.3, 50, 49.7, 52.3, 55.6, 52.1, 51.1, 52.2, 53.5, 51.4, 49.6, 50.7, 48.5, 48.9, 50.7, 45.5, 48.1, 46.6, 45.7, 50.7, 49.4, 50.7, 47.9, 49.3, 48.1, 52.1, 50.3, 50.4, 47.2, 47.9, 48.3, 48.6, 49.7, 53.3, 46.7, 51.7, 50.4, 49.6, 50.8, 50, 51.2, 50.9, 49.6, 50.5, 52.3, 52, 50.9, 47, 50, 46.4 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

46.4
April 2025
The Staffing Levels Index registerted a sharp drop in April.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.






About the Data

SMI data for the ~USA is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data since 2011 is downloadable for all-sectors in a consistent unadjusted format for 6 key indexes: