US Recovery Falters as September Business Activity Stalls

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: September 22, 2025

OVERALL PICTURE: The September Sales Managers Index points to a fragile US recovery, with the headline measure slipping fractionally to 50.4, just above the no-growth line. The August rebound of 1.8 index points has not carried through into September, and while the recession risk still appears to have eased, momentum has weakened again.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: Confidence among US sales managers remained steady in September at 50.4, unchanged from August and holding at a five-month high. This stability, while fragile, is welcome after the deep lows seen in early summer. However, confidence is still well below the levels recorded in the first quarter of the year, reflecting lingering caution around trade policy and uncertainty over the economic outlook for 2025.

MARKET & SALES GROWTH: The Market Growth Index slipped back to 52.6 in September, while the Sales Index dropped to 50.9, its weakest in four months. These results suggest that August’s bounce in demand may have been short-lived, with clients hesitant to commit to new spending. Several panel members noted that although supply chains are functioning more smoothly, buyer sentiment remains restrained.

JOBS: Staffing showed the first signs of stabilisation, with the Index improving to 47.9, its highest level in four months. While still below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction, this indicates that the steep cuts in hiring seen earlier in the year may be slowing. Managers remain reluctant to expand payrolls, though the pace of job contraction has clearly eased.

PRICES: Price pressures edged higher in September, with the Prices Charged Index rising to 53.4. Input cost increases are being passed through only partially, but the data suggests a mild upward trend in inflationary pressures is re-emerging after summer’s moderation.

In summary, September’s US Sales Managers data points to a fragile and uneven recovery. Confidence has steadied, but growth and sales momentum weakened again, while jobs remain under strain. With pricing pressures also edging higher, the US economy continues to face a difficult balancing act, caught between fragile demand and lingering uncertainty.

Sales Managers Index Components

---

---

About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.