The Spectacular Trump Jump Continues Through December

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: December 19, 2024

Donald Trump's US Election win had an extraordinary impact on key US Economic Indexes in November, which has largely continued into December.

In November, the US Sales Managers Survey recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence. Its sister Index, the Sales Managers Sales Growth Index rose to a near 6 year high in November, jumping an equally unheard of 4.6 Index points to reside at a very high Index level of 56.4.

In December the impact slowed, but only marginally. The overall Sales Managers Index, pre the Trump victory in September and October, averaged 51 Index points. The November and December Indexes averaged a remarkable 54 Index Points. Even before he becomes President, Trump has altered confidence in both present and future focussed indexes, something never seen in the Sales Managers Indexes long history.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The survey response to the Inflation question provides some evidence that respondents haven't entirely taken leave of their senses, as the question produced an answer broadly compatible with other recent data , suggesting that Price Inflation is far from dead in the USA. The Price Index is now at the top end of the normal range for responses to this question. Not the best place to be for an incoming Government apparently intent on major policy changes including slashing taxes.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.