US Sales and Market Growth Indexes Stay Positive

But Confidence and Employment Indexes suggest problems in store
The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: August 19, 2024

Signs of a setback in US economic growth have emerged in the first two months of the third Quarter. After a relatively buoyant series of index readings in the second quarter of 2024, July saw a significant trend reversal in Business Confidence, which has continued into August. The Sales and Market Growth Indexes continue to show overall growth in August, but the Confidence Index, reflecting views on what's in store for respondents over the quarter ahead, suggest a rapid fall in the outlook. The average of first quarter Confidence readings came in at 52.2. The equivalent second quarter figure was 51.8. And the average of July and August readings was a negative 49.8, below the 50 "no change" bar.

It may be that the negative impact of macro-economic and geopolitical factors is slowly working through into expectations, if not yet actual business activity. The Federal Reserve has been cautious in its response to economic conditions, and widespread expectations of cuts in interest rates have yet to materialise. But Sales Managers - the respondent base for this survey - are notorious for picking up the first warning signs of problems ahead. Delayed signatures on contracts, increasing hesitation in agreeing to significant expenditures, and a general slowing down sales activity levels can all contribute to sales managers falling confidence, for good if sometimes difficult to articulate reasons.

United States: Business Confidence Index Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

Until July many sectors of the American economy seemed to be largely untroubled by the anti-inflationary rises in interest rates, and the growing shadow of disturbing global political change. However, the evidence presented by the August Sales Managers Survey suggests that the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping interest rates high may at last be having a restraining impact on the "animal spirits" so important to continuing growth in economic activity levels.

Whilst many Price Indexes have registered significant falls in price inflation, the Sales Managers Price Index continues to register relatively high monthly readings, suggesting that the dragon of Price Inflation has not yet been entirely slain. But with confidence on the future course of economic activity falling so sharply, at least one cut in interest rates in the run up to the November US election appears increasingly likely.



Sales Managers Index Components



0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|57.7, 58, 59.1, 60.4, 57.9, 57, 54, 55.6, 53.8, 53.9, 53.9, 53, 52.6, 48.6, 41, 38, 45, 48.3, 50.4, 50.8, 49, 49.7, 51.2, 52.3, 51.7, 52.7, 52.4, 54.6, 53.6, 53.9, 52.1, 52.1, 52.2, 55, 54.8, 54.6, 50.7, 50, 50.7, 51, 49.7, 50, 50, 50.7, 53.2, 51.6, 51.4, 50, 50.3, 50.4, 51.4, 50, 50.7, 46.8, 48.3, 51.4, 46.9, 52.4, 51.2, 48.8, 53.4, 54.6, 53.7, 51.2, 50.4, 49.6, 50 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Business Confidence

49.9
August 2024
Business Confidence fell again in August.
The Business Confidence Index measures the level of optimism/pessimism among sales managers for future conditions.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|57.4, 56.6, 56.8, 56.4, 54.2, 53.9, 52.2, 54, 53.4, 52.7, 51.9, 51.9, 51.4, 49.7, 40.6, 35.1, 42.3, 47.9, 49.6, 50.8, 50.3, 50, 52.1, 53.4, 51, 51.7, 51, 52, 52, 55.1, 54.2, 53.2, 52.9, 53.9, 53.4, 54.6, 50, 50, 49.6, 51.7, 51, 50.6, 51, 52.6, 54.6, 51.9, 51.1, 50, 53.1, 52.3, 52.8, 50.7, 53.6, 51.1, 53.5, 53.8, 54.9, 55.1, 54.1, 51.3, 54.1, 54.2, 53.3, 53.3, 54.2, 52.5, 53.4 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Market Growth

53.4
August 2024
Market Growth increased in August.
The Market Growth Index monitors the underlying growth of the market segments into which the panel members sell.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|57, 53.8, 54.4, 54.7, 52.7, 54.6, 53.1, 53.6, 52.1, 51.2, 53.9, 52.7, 52, 48.9, 42.5, 34.3, 43.2, 43.6, 48.8, 53.5, 50, 50.7, 51.2, 53.7, 52, 52.3, 51.7, 51.6, 53, 55.1, 54.5, 53.2, 53.3, 55.4, 53.1, 55.3, 53.6, 49.6, 51.8, 52.1, 50, 49.7, 50.3, 53.3, 53.5, 52.8, 51.4, 48.9, 54.1, 51.5, 50.7, 50.7, 52.9, 50.7, 53.5, 52.1, 53.8, 53.7, 51.2, 50.8, 53.2, 53.5, 52.5, 52.4, 53.3, 52.9, 53 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Sales Growth

53.0
August 2024
The Sales Growth Index value increased in August.
The Sales Growth Index defines the speed and direction of overall sales of goods and services (current month from previous month).
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|53.2, 54.9, 55.4, 52, 50, 52.5, 55.3, 53.6, 55.9, 55.8, 54.7, 55.1, 54.6, 51.7, 49.1, 40.1, 43.7, 47.9, 52.8, 52.4, 52.9, 56.5, 56.2, 57.4, 54.4, 56, 55.8, 57.2, 57, 58.4, 57.6, 56.4, 55.1, 59.7, 58.2, 58.2, 58, 57.7, 53.2, 55.2, 56.3, 53.2, 54.5, 56.6, 56, 56.6, 55, 52.8, 55.8, 56.4, 54.2, 54.8, 55.4, 54.9, 57.6, 54.1, 56.9, 54.1, 53.3, 53.3, 52.9, 52.3, 55.8, 54.5, 55.4, 54.9, 55.2 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Prices Charged

55.2
August 2024
The Prices Charged grew at a faster pace in August.
The Prices Charged Index measures the speed and direction of changes in the current price of goods and services taking into account any discounts offered.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes
0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|52.1, 51.7, 54.1, 52, 51.5, 49.3, 47.8, 50.8, 50, 50, 51.9, 50.3, 48.9, 44.2, 42.9, 31, 33.8, 36.4, 45.1, 47.6, 43.6, 45.4, 50.4, 46.6, 45, 49.3, 50, 49.7, 52.3, 55.6, 52.1, 51.1, 52.2, 53.5, 51.4, 49.6, 50.7, 48.5, 48.9, 50.7, 45.5, 48.1, 46.6, 45.7, 50.7, 49.4, 50.7, 47.9, 49.3, 48.1, 52.1, 50.3, 50.4, 47.2, 47.9, 48.3, 48.6, 49.7, 53.3, 46.7, 51.7, 50.4, 49.6, 50.8, 50, 51.2, 50.9 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Staffing Levels

50.9
August 2024
The Staffing Levels Index registered slower levels of growth in August.
The Staffing Levels Index monitors the level of growth or decline in employment against the same period a year earlier.
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0 0 0 USA|#0A66C2|48.9, 50.3, 51.4, 47.3, 49.7, 50.7, 50.9, 48.8, 50.4, 48.4, 51.6, 49.5, 49.4, 40.9, 40.6, 30.6, 33.3, 32.2, 42.7, 42.3, 43.6, 46.1, 47.9, 44, 45, 44.3, 46.6, 49.3, 50, 52.2, 50.7, 46.4, 47.5, 51.6, 46.9, 48.2, 46.4, 45.6, 43.6, 49.3, 48.3, 43.2, 46.6, 48.3, 50.4, 48.4, 49.6, 45.7, 45.9, 48.5, 50, 47.3, 50, 49.3, 46.5, 45.9, 46.5, 51.7, 52.9, 49.6, 50.5, 49.6, 49.2, 50.4, 49.6, 48.8, 49.6 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Profit Margins

49.6
August 2024
Profit Margins fell again in August.
Find out more about SMI Diffusion Indexes






About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.






About the Data

SMI data for the ~USA is published as diffusion indexes to gauge the speed and direction of economic activity.

Monthly data since 2011 is downloadable for all-sectors in a consistent unadjusted format for 7 key indexes: