Confidence Evaporates But US Sales Managers Keep the Economy Moving

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in the United States - Every Month
Updated: March 19, 2025

The US Sales Managers Survey results for March show some recovery from the previously unheard of large monthly swings in Business Confidence. The exuberance that followed the Trump election win has now all but disappeared from the Sales Managers responses, but it remains clear that the extraordinary see-sawing tariff policies of the incoming Republicans have dampened enthusiasm for the new Government.

However the basic strength of the American economy appears not to have been significantly weakened by the somewhat chaotic series of policy announcements made since the new Government took office, except for signs that job recruitment has slowed down, and prices are once again creeping upwards. The overall Sales Managers Index came in a comforting 2 index points above the 50 line separating growth from economic contraction.

Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

In summary, there seems little doubt that the continuous stream of edicts pouring out of the President's office on a daily basis are causing considerable uncertainty. The extreme buoyancy in business confidence over the immediate post election period appears to have all but evaporated. But the great growth machine of US business activity continues to move steadily forward. To date...

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of United States growth in recent years.