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Insight of the Day
Emerging Markets Contributed Almost Two-Thirds of Global Growth Over Last Decade
25 July 2026
Countries defined as Emerging Markets have massively outperformed all other categories, yet poor Governance and other characteristics keep portfolio weightings limited.
The contribution of Emerging Markets to global growth has been phenomenal over recent decades. Yet most global portfolios continue to give rather lowly weighting to such countries. In the case of countries such as Russia, investors are clearly right to be hesitant to invest and those that are invested in Russia now regret the decision. But in overall Emerging Market terms the growth disparity has been so large between developed and developing countries that portfolios may be seriously underweighting the great changes taking place in the world economy.
Contribution of Emerging Markets to Global Growth
Period: 2015-2025
* GDP in
Purchasing Power Parity
terms with added estimates for the size of the
informal economy
and adjustments for out-of-date
GDP base year
data.
In comparison with over 64% of output growth created within Emerging Markets, Developed Markets produced 18% contribution, Frontier Markets just 9%, and the Rest of the World 9%.
Whilst it must be remembered that it's far easier to produce impressive numbers from a low base (which has been the case for most Emerging Markets over the past thirty years), the enormous growth of China, India, South Korea (and others) in recent years means that this view is of less and less relevance today. Many economists have suggested over the past quarter century that (for example) China's extraordinary rise cannot continue at the same pace forever, which is necessarily true, sooner or later. But until Covid arrived, the slowdown in output growth in China had been modest, with growth that could only be described as rapid continuing virtually non-stop.
A further argument has also been directed at many Emerging Market countries, to the effect that the quality of their economic data is suspect, and therefore the growth rates quoted may be artificially high. The
World Economics Data Quality Ratings
do suggest that in some developing countries care should be taken in the interpretation of GDP and Population data, but the general quality of data has been improving, and some (for example, China again), has Population and GDP data now classed as A and B grade respectively.
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More perspectives using World Economics data
Extreme Heat Trending Upwards across Major Global Cities
In 43 major world cities, the number of extremely hot days increased by 72% between 2000 and 2024. The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), which published the study, judges +35c as extreme heat . Comparing individual years can exaggerate change, but a rising trend is clear when comparing the periods of 1994-2003 and 2015-2024, which, as the IIED notes, saw a 26% rise in th...
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What Percent of Your Portfolio Should be Asian?
As noted in our review of Asian Governance , Asian GDP is bigger than that of Europe, the Americas and Africa combined. Asia accounts for well over half of global GDP. And Asian GDP growth has accounted for 70% of global growth over the past decade. So, shouldn't Asia comprise 50%+ of your investments by value? Probably not. The problem with Asia is that this vast geographical space (however defin...
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China's Demographic Dividend Myth
Over the past 40 years the Chinese economy has achieved what many believe to be almost miraculous growth. Economists have attributed a big part of this growth to the fact that the working age population grew far faster than the young and old non-working dependents, a factor often described as the "demographic dividend". Currently this supposed dividend is disappearing, and it is often suggested that a...
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