Thought for the day

China’s Coming Population Collapse


 
Last updated: 14 November 2024
 
China has experienced a dramatic fall in fertility rates. With levels already far below replacement, depopulation is imminent. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time.

Decline in Fertility across East Asia 2000-2050
Data ranked on lowest population fertility rates by 2050.
China’s Coming Population Collapse



China’s childbearing levels are currently 50% below the replacement rate. This means that each coming generation will be approximately half as large as the one before it. Long-term, one projection sees China’s population decline by 48% by the end of this century.

This will completely shift China’s age structure. For example, the oldest generations will more than triple from 2020 to 2050. These groups will naturally put great strain on the health care and old age support systems accentuated by the shrinking working-age population. See more on China...



More perspectives using World Economics data

Ireland is Now Significantly Wealthier than the UK
Ireland is Now Significantly Wealthier than the UK
Once upon a time about a century ago, Belfast was bigger than Dublin, and industrial Northern Ireland was much wealthier than the poor agricultural South. Today the roles are reversed. Northern Ireland remains to a considerable extent dependant on handouts from London and is much poorer than prosperous Ireland. Dublin is now three times the size of Belfast and looks (unlike Belfast) like a thriving ...
How Good is Governance Around the World?
How Good is Governance Around the World?
To help investors asses risk in relation to Governance, World Economics produces a continuously revised global Index, to bring together crucial aspects of Governance that collectively measure countries in relation to rule of law, press freedom, political rights, and corruption. Europe leads the way with 87% of countries attaining Good (as rated A or B) levels of Governance. At the opposite end of the ...
Dictators Lie About Economic Growth
Dictators Lie About Economic Growth
Exaggeration, misrepresentation and suppression of economic data is endemic, and not new. Oskar Morgenstern, in his 1950 monograph "On the Accuracy of Economic Observations" made many pithy statements: " ...economic and social statistics are frequently based on deliberate lies " " In totalitarian countries the suppression of statistics is often carried very far " " The undeniable existence of an un...