It must be emphasized that not too much weight should be placed on a single data point from any individual economic index. Particular events, seasonality , problems with the data sample and many other factors can influence the results of a monthly panel survey. However, with both Manufacturing and Service sectors Confidence Indicators now in positive territory, the outlook for the Chinese economy may be on the rise, and looking healthier than it has for some time.

The Business Confidence Index is particularly important as the question asked of panel members relates to their confidence in the future course of business activity, not its present level. Sales Managers , because of the very nature of their work tend to be more attuned to the immediate future. They are in general very aware of levels of contracts they expect to be signed shortly , as well as current order books, with the potential personal impact of likely sales levels on bonuses linked to sales. Economists often refer to levels of Business Confidence as "animal spirits", reflecting the great importance of Confidence on future levels of investment and employment.

However the overall message must remain one of caution, until more data points illuminate the likely course of economic activity in China in the first quarter of 2025. One particular hazard may significantly alter the short term outlook in China - the much heralded imposition of giant tariffs by the incoming Trump regime. In this context, the optimism evident in the Chinese Manufacturing sector is surprising . Preparations to batten down the hatches in case of stormy weather ahead might seem more appropriate advice. The big question remains: can the world's great growth engine of the past few decades move back towards its previously central role in sponsoring global economic expansion. Or will tariff wars with the USA move China and other centres of economic growth into reverse gear?
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