Thought for the day

China's GDP is Likely to Grow to
Twice the Size of US GDP


 
Last updated: 15 June 2024
 
South Korea, and Taiwan have achieved GDP per head of around 80% of the US level, starting from very close to poverty. If China can raise GDP per head to just 50%+ of US levels (hardly an impossible task given its record over the last 40 years), it will have a GDP twice that of the US. If China's GDP per capita gets anywhere near those achieved in South Korea, its economy will approach three times the size of the US.

China and South Korean GDP per Capita: 2008-2023
GDP per Capita in Purchasing Power Parity Terms, Int$
China




Any number of factors might derail China's growth, even in the short term, including war over Taiwan, mismanagement of the Chinese economy linked to its poor Governance rating, and further attempts by America to reduce trading links with China. But seismic events aside, given the giant size of its home market, its role as workshop to the world and its extraordinary growth rate since 1980, it appears quite likely that China will come to dominate the world economy over the next quarter century.
 
See the China Review...
See The China Survey...
See more Thoughts on China...



More perspectives using World Economics data

The Spectacular Trump Jump Continues Through December
The Spectacular Trump Jump Continues Through December
Donald Trump's US Election win had an extraordinary impact on key US Economic Indexes in November, which has largely continued into December. In November, the US Sales Managers Survey recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence. Its sister Index, the Sales Managers Sales Growth Index rose to a near 6 year high in November, jumping an equally unheard of 4.6 Index ...
Which Asia-Pacific Countries are Likely to Suffer First from Global Warming?
Which Asia-Pacific Countries are Likely to Suffer First from Global Warming?
Climate change is likely to cause many different problems ranging from rising sea levels to more erratic and severe weather patterns. While impossible to be sure of the precise impact of global warming, it is reasonable to suppose that those countries with the highest average temperatures today will be first in line to suffer serious problems. The United Nations Climate Action Fast Facts document...
WARNING: Don't Trust Official GDP Data
WARNING: Don
Organisations of many kinds use GDP data. Governments, Non Governmental Organisations, Civil Societies, Businesses and a thousand others trust "official" economic data and use it as if it were holy writ. Highly regarded companies like global consultants McKinsey produce lists of the fastest growing countries to admire and perhaps invest in. Government aid is distributed, product plans put together, an...