INDIAN ECONOMY HEADS BACK INTO RECESSION

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in India - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: July 21, 2022

• Headline Sales Managers Index fell further under the 50 no growth line to a 22 month low
• Sales Growth Index fell sharply losing 2.6 Index points, and plunging to a 22 month low
• The Market Growth and Business Confidence Indexes both fell to new year-plus lows
• The Staffing Index fell dramatically again to record a 12 month year-on-year low
• Despite the downbeat sales data, prices continue to rise fast, but the good news is, the rise has slackened significantly

India's economy tips back into recession in July

Headline Sales Managers Index
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Indian economy is slowly tipping back into recession according to the latest (July) data from the Sales Managers Monthly survey.

Sales managers are very much the "front line" in terms of sensitivity to changing business conditions. Sensitive to contractual negotiations being deliberately slowed down. Sensitive to expected contracts "in the bag" being suddenly cancelled. And most of all sensitive to "budgetary problems" being increasingly cited as reasons for sales negotiations faltering.

All of these conditions are present today in many markets in India leading to the July Sales Managers Index falling to a new low. Very little general good news is apparent from the survey, although some sectors of economic activity continue to thrive

---

About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.