India Sales Managers Index Rises to 32-Month High

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in India - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: November 21, 2022

Although still far behind the growth figures registered in the heady pre Covid days, economic activity in India does at last seem to be recovering from the disaster of the global pandemic.

The overall Sales Managers Index, rose to a 32 month high in November, albeit to a figure suggesting exceedingly modest growth in economic activity.

The Business Confidence Index (highlighting confidence in the near future) registered an optimistic 53.4, up from 52.7. in October.

Business confidence at 32 month high in November

Business Confidence Index
Source: World Economics
Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

All Indexes bar Staffing remained at 50+ levels, signifying modest growth overall. The Staffing index, remained stubbornly under water, with an index reading of 48.3.

Overall, it does appear as if India is slowly rising from the covid induced mire into which it plunged in 2020, to once more register economic growth.

Looking at charts of economic activity prior to covid, exhibiting brimming self confidence and sales growth racing ahead, it appears likely that the GDP data currently emerging from the Indian Government reflects recovery from the Covid lows of activity, rather than high non Covid related growth above the levels previously recorded pre Covid.

But what looks suspiciously like the green shoots of GDP recovery are present in the November Sales Survey data.

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.