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Thought for the day
Russia’s Negligible GDP Growth Contrasts Sharply with China’s Massive Advance
Last updated: 3 July 2024
China’s advance, in economic terms, has outperformed all other countries in recent times . China’s GDP, in Purchasing Power Parity terms (the favoured measure of both the IMF and the CIA) has overtaken the USA to become the largest in the world. China’s GDP has risen by over 775% in the last 25 years, compared with an increase of 144% in Russia.
Chinese and Russian GDP
(GDP PPP, Int$ Trillions)
* GDP in
Purchasing Power Parity
terms with added estimates for the size of the
informal economy
and adjustments for out-of-date
GDP base year
data.
But perhaps the most astonishing comparison is with Russia. When Mr Putin first became President, the Russian and Chinese economies were both way down the global pecking order. The Russian economy has grown, but very slowly. China in contrast has powered ahead to become the primary engine of global economic growth. Over the past decade China has created almost one third of all global growth in economic output.
It is difficult to understand why the two economies have performed so differently, despite both being authoritarian regimes in western eyes. The World Economics database shows China to have had significantly better rankings in terms of levels of corruption, and closer adherence to the rule of law. But on these variables both countries appear some way from modern advanced country norms.
The exit of Hermitage Capital from Russia and subsequent and connected death of the lawyer Serge Magnitsky in a Russian prison exposed levels of corruption by Government officials that have probably been widespread and instrumental in preventing private enterprise from flourishing as it was allowed to do in China. However recent changes in China appear to suggest that the country is following Russia down the path towards greater suppression of political and economic freedoms. Which may impact on economic growth in future.
Whatever the cause, the difference in performance between China and Russia over the last quarter of a century, as shown in the chart, is astonishing.
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Chinese Services sector activity has continued to support overall growth in the Chinese economy in recent months, despite obvious problems in the Manufacturing sector. Recent months data have suggested that even the Services sector has been teetering on the verge of recession. However the just released November data suggests that a turning point may have been reached. The crucial Business Confidence i...
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Dramatic Demographic Decline in East Asia
East Asia has been the primary driving force in global growth over the recent decades, but rapidly falling fertility rates suggest the region may cede its lead over the coming years. Childbearing levels across the region have been, on average, below the replacement rate since 2010. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator ove...
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First November US Economic Data Shows Spectacular Trump Effect
Donald Trump's US Election win has had an extraordinary impact on key US Economic Indexes. The US Sales Managers Survey , in existence for 13 years, has recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence. Its sister Index, the Sales Managers Sales Growth Index rose to a near 6 year high in November, jumping an equally unheard of 4.6 Index points to reside at a very h...
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