Thought for the day

First November US Economic Data Shows
Spectacular Trump Effect

Trumps win has significantly boosted business confidence...and more.


 
Last updated: 16 November 2024
 
Donald Trump's US Election win has had an extraordinary impact on key US Economic Indexes. The US Sales Managers Survey , in existence for 13 years, has recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence.

Its sister Index, the Sales Managers Sales Growth Index rose to a near 6 year high in November, jumping an equally unheard of 4.6 Index points to reside at a very high Index level of 56.4.

United States Sales Growth Index
Diffusion Index: 50 = ‘no growth’
First November US Economic Data Shows - Spectacular Trump Effect
With only a 10 day period for research between the Presidential election and the current results appearing, it is not yet clear whether these and other Sales Managers November Survey readings are the result of relief that the uncertainty is now over, or its a form of widespread euphoria over the Trump win, making survey responses far more optimistic than would otherwise be the case.

The survey response to the Inflation question provides some evidence that respondents haven't entirely taken leave of their senses, as the question produced an answer broadly compatible with other recent data, suggesting that Price Inflation is far from dead in the USA. The Price Index rose 2 Index points, and is now at the top end of the normal range for responses to this question. Not the best place to be for an incoming Government apparently intent on major policy changes including slashing taxes.
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