Thought for the day

Massive Changes Already Seen in Relative Sizes of Major Countries Expected to Continue


 
Last updated: 3 July 2024
 
China and India’s combined share of global GDP may approach 35% within the next decade. India is quite likely to overtake the U.S. to become the worlds second biggest country in GDP terms by 2032.

Percentage Share of Global GDP: 1990-2030
Using 5-year CAGR for projections
Massive Changes Already Seen in Relative Sizes of Major Countries Expected to Continue
* GDP in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data.


Major changes have taken place in the relative size of the worlds biggest countries over the last three decades.

China has grown from accounting for a small percentage of global GDP, a long way behind the USA, and smaller than India and Russia, to being the worlds largest economy. Further growth is likely over the next decade taking its share of global GDP to within striking distance of a massive 24% of all global economic activity.

India’s share of the global economy is likely to reach around 12% within the next 10-15 years. Around the same time, United State’s share of global GDP will probably have shrunk from 18% in 1990, to less than India’s. And Russia’s share of global economic activity will in all probability fall to less than 4% over the same period, and possibly fall even more if the current sanctions relating to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stay in force for several years.

All these projections are based on a continuation of the country growth rate differentials seen over the past 5-years. It is of course possible if not probable that the high growth rates seen in China and India may slow down over the next decade. However it is equally possible that the growth of the USA will continue to slow down as it has over the past 30 years. Very few economists believe that the growth of Asia will slow to match that of the western world in the next decade. The growth rate differentials are likely to stay wide, so the general conclusions of this note remain valid even if they take somewhat longer to come about than postulated. See more data...



More perspectives using World Economics data

Extreme Heat Scorches Asia
Extreme Heat Scorches Asia
From 1994-2003 there were 4,755 days of excessive heat , defined as 35c+, across the world’s twenty most populous capital cities. That has now grown to nearly 6,500 days in the most recent decade. The densely-populated capitals of South, Southeast and West Asia have predominately experienced this increasing heat stress . Based on a linear annual trendline across these three decades, the number o...
The Indian Economy Continues to Grow Rapidly
The Indian Economy Continues to Grow Rapidly
Indian Sales Managers reported another month of significant economic expansion in December. The month saw a very modest pause in the rate of expansion, but all growth related indexes continue to reflect expansion across a wide variety of business sectors, at a level that will doubtless be admired in many other countries. The overall Sales Managers Index which shows the impact of the sub Indexes in co...
China Manufacturing Sector Confidence Hits a 38-Month High
China Manufacturing Sector Confidence Hits a 38-Month High
After many months in the doldrums, Business Confidence in the Chinese Manufacturing Sector has sprung into life . December Sales Managers Data data records Confidence at a 38 month high, a remarkable turnaround after years of low readings. In sharp contrast, the Services sector, which has remained in reasonable shape during the long period during which the Manufacturing sector appeared to be hibernati...