Thought for the day

Sales Managers Index Reflects Emerging Global Growth


 
Last updated: 19 November 2024
 
World economic activity continues to grow when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes, in the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India). After the falling growth rates registered over the last 9 months, November broke the trend, with rapid growth in India, renewed growth in the USA and emerging growth in China combining to produce a significant rise in almost all the global indexes.

Global Growth Rising Again
Diffusion Index: 50 = ‘no growth’
Sales Managers Index Reflects Emerging Global Growth
For most recent decades these three countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of total global growth, and in reality, probably significantly more, as the "rest of the world" in this case includes many countries with less reliable and often inflated data. In any event, if survey results from these three countries collectively are looking good, as is currently the case, prospects for economic activity in the world as a whole are very likely to be positive. And these data provide a good indication that the world has avoided the much-predicted worldwide recession brought on by rising interest rates.

Only one caution to be noted when reviewing these data. The US growth numbers that feed into the Global Indexes, are quite unusual in the sense they were researched immediately after President-to-be Trump won the US Presidential election. All the Sales Managers Indexes US survey results jumped significantly over the two weeks following the election. Whether this was confidence engendered by knowing the uncertainty caused by the election was over, or by business wide elation over the result, or some other factor is not known. However, it is possible this was a freak increase in the data caused by the conjunction with the election. Next month's data should resolve the question...
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