Thought for the day

The Consequences of Türkiye’s Fertility Fall


 
Last updated: 28 December 2024
 
Türkiye is the world’s 12th largest economy in terms of GDP, and it has been the 5th largest contributor to global growth over the past decade. If the GDP growth rates achieved over the past 5 years are maintained, Türkiye could overtake both France and the UK by 2030 in terms of its GDP size.

However, a key issue for Türkiye is likely to be its falling fertility rate, which has dropped more than threefold since 1970 to 1.6%. This decline will sharply reduce the size of Türkiye’s working-age population in coming years. Over time, there will be a decreasing amount of workers able to support non-working retirees in the population, as can be seen in the chart below.

Number of Workers to Retirees in Türkiye 2000-2060
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute
The Consequences of Türkiye’s Fertility Fall




The elderly consume more resources, both in terms of pensions and medical and care costs, than any other age group. Therefore, this demographic trend will mean the tax burden on the dwindling working population will become increasingly unsustainable.
 See more data for Türkiye...



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