Thought for the day

The Consequences of Türkiye’s Fertility Fall


 
Last updated: 6 December 2024
 
Türkiye is the world’s 13th largest economy in terms of GDP, and it is the 5th largest contributor to global growth over the past decade. If the GDP growth rates achieved over the past 5 years are maintained, Türkiye could overtake both France and the UK by 2030 in terms of its GDP size. However, a key issue for Türkiye could be its falling fertility rate which has dropped more than threefold since 1970 to 1.6%. This decline has contributed to the growth of the country’s elderly population. One projection sees this elderly group rise to constitute just over a quarter of Türkiye’s total population by 2080.

Proportion of Türkiye’s population by age group, 2020-2080
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute
The Consequences of Türkiye’s Fertility Fall




With old age dependency continuing to rise across the coming decades, the ratio of people receiving pension support, and placing strain on medical and care systems, will continue to rise against the tax-paying population. Old people are predominately consumers of scarce and expensive resources, and this shift in Türkiye’s demographics could therefore affect its growth.
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