Thought for the day

The Spectacular Trump Jump Continues Through December


 
Last updated: 19 December 2024
 
Donald Trump's US Election win had an extraordinary impact on key US Economic Indexes in November, which has largely continued into December.

In November, the US Sales Managers Survey recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence. Its sister Index, the Sales Managers Sales Growth Index rose to a near 6 year high in November, jumping an equally unheard of 4.6 Index points to reside at a very high Index level of 56.4.

In December the impact slowed, but only marginally. The overall Sales Managers Index, pre the Trump victory in September and October, averaged 51 Index points. The November and December Indexes averaged a remarkable 54 Index Points. Even before he becomes President, Trump has altered confidence in both present and future focussed indexes, something never seen in the Sales Managers Indexes long history.

Business Confidence rises high and stays high after Trump election victory
Diffusion Index: 50 = ‘no growth’
The Spectacular Trump Jump Continues Through December


The survey response to the Inflation question provides some evidence that respondents haven't entirely taken leave of their senses, as the question produced an answer broadly compatible with other recent data , suggesting that Price Inflation is far from dead in the USA. The Price Index is now at the top end of the normal range for responses to this question. Not the best place to be for an incoming Government apparently intent on major policy changes including slashing taxes.
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