Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.


Latest SMI releases


GLOBAL: Sales Managers Index Reflects Emerging Global Growth
World economic activity continues to grow when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes, in the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India). After the falling growth rates registered over the 9-months to October, January followed November and December in following the upward trend, with rapid growth in India, renewed growth in the USA and tentative growth in China combining to produce a modest rise in almost all the global indexes.
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CHINA: China Manufacturing Sector Confidence Stays High in January
Business Confidence in the Chinese Manufacturing Sector has risen strongly in the last two months. In sharp contrast, Confidence in the Services sector, which has remained in reasonable shape during the long period during which the Manufacturing sector appeared to be hibernating, has recently become the laggard, with the January reading at a 24 month low.
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UNITED STATES: Trump's Return Continues to Buoy the US Economy
After Trumps November election win, the US Sales Managers Survey recorded a previously unheard of 5.1 Index points increase in Business Confidence. In December the impact slowed, but only marginally. In January, again a small reduction in optimism, but overall, all indexes have remained above their pre-election levels levels. Even before becoming President, Trump has boosted confidence in both present and future focussed indexes, something never seen in the Sales Managers Indexes long history.
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INDIA: First January Survey Results for the Indian Economy: Rapid Growth, and Q1 Looking Good
Indian Sales Managers reported another month of rapid economic expansion in January. The month saw the rate of expansion rise, with all growth related Indexes at new highs, reflecting expansion across a wide variety of business sectors, at a level that will doubtless be envied in many other countries. The Sales Growth Index is now at a 62-month high!
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Notes & Methodology

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a global panel of over 4500 companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product for each country/region.

The Sales Managers’ Index results are diffusion indexes which are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity.

Three month Moving Averages are applied to each index to mitigate the effect of seasonal variations and published as the index figures



About the Sales Managers’ Indexes

The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a series of products developed by World Economics which counts panellists in key countries worldwide. Designed to raise the voice and profile of sales people throughout the world, the Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing.

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being right at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery.

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in each economy. The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data.



About the World Economics

World Economics is an organisation dedicated to producing analysis, insight and data relating to questions of importance in understanding the world economy. Its parent company Information Sciences Ltd has a long history of the development of key business information today used throughout the world, including the origination and development of the Purchasing Managers Indexes in China, Japan, India, Europe, America and the UK (now owned by &P Global), and the development of WARC a global information provider for major corporations (now owned by Ascential).