Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.


Latest SMI releases


GLOBAL: April Sales Data Shows Global Impact of Trump Tariffs
World economic activity slowed to a 21-month low in April when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes for the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India).
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CHINA: China Business Stays Confident in April (Unlike the USA)
Despite the tariff threats coming from America, confidence in both the Manufacturing and Services sectors in China remains in positive territory. The overall China Business Confidence Index reading for April was a robust 52, in stark comparison with the recessionary 47.2 reading for the USA. Confidence in the China Services sector remains significantly higher (an Index reading of 52.7) compared with Manufacturing (at 51.1), but with the Services sector now well ahead of Manufacturing in GDP weighting terms, the differential suggests continuing (albeit modest) growth in overall economic activity.
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UNITED STATES: US Economic Activity Nosedives in April
The US Sales Managers Survey results for April reflect the chaos produced by the huge and erratic on/off US tariff changes seen over the past month. The exuberance that followed the Trump election win has now vanished. Sales Managers responses reflect serious worries about the impact of the seemingly incoherent policy changes.
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INDIA: First April Survey Results for the Indian Economy: Rapid deceleration in economic activity
Indian Sales Managers reported another month of economic expansion in April, but also a significant fall in Business Confidence to a 15 month low, a big fall in the Sales Growth index, also to a 15 month low, and a serious fall in the Staffing Index to a two year low. Overall the composite Sales Managers Index slowed to a 15 month low, probably linked to uncertainty caused by the US imposition of potentially highly damaging tariffs.
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Notes & Methodology

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a global panel of over 4500 companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product for each country/region.

The Sales Managers’ Index results are diffusion indexes which are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that activity has risen (“Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged"). Using half of the “Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% “Increasing," 40% “Unchanged," and 20% “Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity.

Three month Moving Averages are applied to each index to mitigate the effect of seasonal variations and published as the index figures



About the Sales Managers’ Indexes

The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a series of products developed by World Economics which counts panellists in key countries worldwide. Designed to raise the voice and profile of sales people throughout the world, the Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing.

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being right at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery.

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in each economy. The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data.



About the World Economics

World Economics is an organisation dedicated to producing analysis, insight and data relating to questions of importance in understanding the world economy. Its parent company Information Sciences Ltd has a long history of the development of key business information today used throughout the world, including the origination and development of the Purchasing Managers Indexes in China, Japan, India, Europe, America and the UK (now owned by &P Global), and the development of WARC a global information provider for major corporations (now owned by Ascential).