Thought for the day

The Indian Economy Grows Rapidly in June


 
Last updated: 3 July 2024
 
New June data from the Indian Sales Managers Survey reflects economic growth of an increasingly high order.

Every growth related component of the Sales Managers Index for June rose. No fewer than 5 growth related Indexes are well over three year highs.

All but one of the 5 are in Index levels of 53+ territory, signalling rapid growth.

Overall, the Sales Managers Indexes suggest GDP growth in the second quarter of the year was high.

India Sales Growth Index: June 2023
Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Growth')
The Indian Economy Grows Rapidly in June

And expectations of growth in the third quarter of the year, from the forward looking Business Confidence Index, remain high.

Even the India Price Index produced good news, with a 7 point fall to 51.6. A rapid fall from the less than desirable April level of 55.2.

Price Inflation is still in evidence in the Indian economy, but appears to be coming under control.

Many companies remain cautious in relation to staffing levels.

But the Jobs Index has moved up rapidly to a 39 month high, with a June reading of 53.3. Clearly a good sign.

In summary, India appears to be emerging , by some margin, as the fastest moving of the three big growth engines of the global economy. The Sales Managers Indexes suggest that neither China or the USA are likely to match Indian GDP growth in Q2 or Q3.

There is evidence to suggest that official data does not take sufficient account of the massive problems faced by the very large unofficial shadow economy . And consequently official estimates of rapid growth in Indian economic activity do not entirely square with the evident and serious continuing problems of unemployment, particularly among the young. But the "official" non informal giant Indian economy is clearly on the move again.
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