The World's Economic Growth Engines Slide Into Recession


 
Global recession looms as the continuing war in Europe, rampant price inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty impact on the three biggest growth drivers of economic activity.

Monthly research for the Global Sales Managers Index covers China, the USA and India. Together over the past decade, these three countries accounted for almost 60% of global economic growth. None are proving immune to the serious problems now weighing heavily on global economic activity.


The latest growth related elements of the Global Sales Managers Index show that the world economy is heading back into recession, as war in Europe drags on, damaging global energy and food supplies; price inflation continues to spiral, in some cases now exceeding 10%, fuelled both by shortages of goods and services and the lax monetary policies followed by many countries in reaction to Covid.

As a consequence, three out of four of the growth related Sales Managers Indexes are at near two year lows. The overall Sales Managers Index has tipped into recession, in July registering well below the crucial 50 "no change" level. Staffing levels remain a long way below those seen a year ago. Only Business confidence (that business activity will improve over the next few months) remains fractionally over the 50 level, but also at a 24 month low, and still falling month on month.

The (only) good news is that the Price Index fell significantly in July, suggesting strongly that supply problems may be slowly resolving as business adjusts to the severe problems faced over the Covid years..
Continue reading for more analysis, charts & data. [SUBSCRIBER ONLY]

Take a Trial to Continue Reading...

Unlock all insights, data tables, and tools.

Register now



More perspectives using World Economics data

China's Economy Maintains Steady Expansion in November, Supported by Rising Prices and Market Growth
China
The November Sales Managers Index (SMI) for China suggests continued moderate economic expansion continues, with the Headline All-Sector SMI reaching 51.3, a four-month high. Growth remains broadly balanced across sectors, supported by the strongest pricing power in over three years and a notable recovery in perceived market growth. Despite persistent external pressures, the economy has now recorded f...
US Sales Managers Index Signals Subdued Growth in November
US Sales Managers Index Signals Subdued Growth in November
The Headline Sales Managers Index (SMI) for the United States rose marginally from 51.0 in October to 51.1 in November 2025, continuing to signal fragile but positive economic expansion. The most encouraging development was a strong rise in the Sales Growth Index to 54.1, its highest level in 11 months, suggesting some businesses are already seeing an early start to the crucial holiday shopping seaso...
Global Economy Shows Renewed Momentum in November
Global Economy Shows Renewed Momentum in November
The Global Sales Managers Index (SMI) for November rose to 51.7, indicating a modest acceleration in global economic expansion compared to October’s level. The improvement was led by a sharp rebound in Sales Growth to 54.1, the highest reading in over 4 years, alongside the strongest Market Growth Index in eight months. Pricing pressures eased slightly, while staffing levels and profit margins remaine...