India

Updated: November 2022.


Key Insights
  • India's GDP is significantly understated in most investment commentaries.
  • The understatement results from poor quality data and price measurement.
  • India accounted for 15% of global growth over the last decade, and is now probably the third biggest country in GDP terms.
  • It is likely that India's GDP will overtake the United States within a decade to become the worlds number 2 economy.
 
ECONOMY SIZE

  • India's economy has grown rapidly over the past decade reshaping the world economy, as shown in the chart below.
Percentage Share of Global GDP: 1990-2030
Using 10-year CAGR for projections
  • When measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms, including estimates for its vast informal economy, and adjustments for outdated base year measures, India's GDP is the third largest in the world.
Gross Domestic Product
Ranked by GDP
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country GDP by Size
See full interactive table
GDP PPP
(Billions)
GDP Data Quality
Grade
Share of
Global GDP
%





China $30,290 B 18.4%
United States $22,522 A 13.6%
India $15,518 C 9.4%
Japan $5,640 A 3.4%
Russia $5,540 C 3.4%
Germany $4,890 A 3.0%
Indonesia $4,519 B 2.7%
Brazil $4,167 B 2.5%
Turkey $3,487 B 2.1%
France $3,449 A 2.1%

Access the interactive all country GDP by Size table


Related Data:

Related Insights:


 
GDP Data Quality

  • India's GDP data is classed as C grade in the World Economics Data Quality Rating scale. Essentially not to be trusted. Read more...
  • Main failings are outdated Base Year data and SNA data; a vast largely unmeasured Informal / Shadow economy data; insufficient resources devoted to measuring economic activity (a nightmarish task even if fully resourced); and a high level of corruption.
  • Adding in World Economics estimates for the Informal economy , updated Base year and SNA improves the quality of the data to an extent that makes it useful for intercountry comparison. But lack of statistical resources and high corruption makes it necessary to be cautious in any analysis.
Data Quality Ratings
Index: 0 = Extremely poor quality, 100 = Good as it gets
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country table
See full interactive version
Data
Quality
Index
Data
Quality
Grade
Base
Year
SNA
Version
Informal
Economy %
Resoucres
Index
Corruption
Index





Bosnia and Herzegovina 65.8 C Chained 1993 33.0 60.0 35
Argentina 65.6 C 2004 2008 27.3 78.9 38
Uganda 65.1 C 2010 2008 34.4 71.1 27
Tajikistan 64.7 C Chained 1993 37.1 72.2 25
Egypt 64.4 C 2016 1993 34.8 82.2 33
Paraguay 64.4 C 2014 2008 46.5 65.6 30
India 63.9 C 2011 2008 52.4 76.7 40
Uruguay 63.5 C 2005 1993 31.7 80.0 73
Vietnam 63.5 C 2010 1993 20.5 74.4 39
Peru 63.4 C 2007 2008 42.2 80.0 36
Nicaragua 63.2 C Chained 2008 52.5 46.7 20
Kenya 63.0 C 2009 2008 32.6 57.8 30
Benin 62.7 C Chained 1993 48.8 62.2 42
Ecuador 62.4 C 2007 2008 37.2 65.6 36

Access the interactive all country Data Quality Ratings table

Key:
Data Quality Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Poor, 100 = Excellent.

Resources Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Low level of resources, 100 = High level of resources.

Corruption Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = High corruption, 100 = Low corruption.

Grade definitions:
         A: As good as it gets;
         B: Use with caution;
         C: Unreliable for many purposes
         D: Extremely poor quality.


Related Data:

Relevant Papers:


 
ECONOMIC GROWTH

  • The Indian economy expanded rapidly over the past decade. Of all the major economies, only China grew faster.
India's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last 10-years
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country CAGR
See full interactive table
Global
Rank:
GDP Data
Quality:
Grade
CAGR
10 Year:
2011-2021
CAGR
5 Year:
2016-2021
CAGR
3 Year:
2018-2021
Global Growth
Share:
Percentage




Uzbekistan 16 C 5.9% 4.9% 4.9% 0.3%
Cambodia 17 D 5.6% 4.0% 1.9% 0.1%
Nepal 18 D 5.6% 7.5% 7.6% 0.2%
Vietnam 19 C 5.6% 5.3% 4.1% 1.1%
Tanzania 20 C 5.6% 5.0% 4.2% 0.3%
Niger 21 D 5.6% 4.6% 3.7% 0.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep 22 D 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 0.2%
India 23 C 5.4% 3.7% 1.8% 14.7%
Kenya 24 C 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 0.4%
Senegal 25 C 5.3% 5.1% 3.9% 0.1%
Benin 26 C 5.3% 5.9% 5.8% 0.1%
Burkina Faso 27 D 5.3% 5.3% 4.6% 0.1%
Ghana 28 B 5.3% 5.6% 4.5% 0.3%
Turkey 29 B 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.2%
Malta 30 A 5.1% 4.1% 2.4% 0.0%

Access the interactive all country CAGR table

  • Between 2011 and 2021 India accounted for almost 15% of all global economic growth, again second only to China.
  • In recent years India's GDP growth has slowed, partly due to the impact of covid.

Related Data:

Related Insights:


 
WEALTH

  • As a country with relatively low GDP Quality Ratings any measure of wealth based on GDP per capita must necessarily be treated with great caution.
  • Making allowance for the major data deficiencies via the quarterly World Economics reviews of those aspects that can be uprated, produces a picture of rapid GDP per capita growth (albeit from a very low base) that should not be regarded as a precise measure. But growth has clearly been fast in relation to most other major countries.
India's GDP Per Capita Growth: 25 Years
Index: 1996 = 100
  • India per capita GDP remains low in relation to other Asia-Pacific and Emerging Market countries, as shown in the following table.
GDP Per Capita
Ranked by GDP per Capita
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country GDP per capita
See full interactive table
GDP Per Capita
PPP
(Int$)
GDP per Capita
Data Quality
Grade





Algeria $12,883 B
Moldova $12,857 B
El Salvador $12,776 C
Guatemala $12,441 B
Jordan $12,385 B
Philippines $11,487 B
Vietnam $11,426 C
India $11,137 C
Laos $11,062 C
Angola $11,034 D
Uzbekistan $10,106 C
Morocco $9,904 B
Nigeria $9,148 D
Honduras $9,139 D
Mauritania $8,816 D
Asia-Pacific Average $29,180 -
Emerging Markets Average $38,310 -

Access the interactive all country GDP per Capita table


Related Data:

Related Insights:


 
INEQUALITY

  • The Inequality rankings for India (based on Gini 2011 data) indicate that a relatively large percentage of national income falls into the hands of relatively few of the 1.4 billion population.
  • Wealth is usually better measured by the distribution of capital (in the form of property, companies and financial assets) than by income alone. Any income based index will probably understate true levels of inequality.
  • Many attempts have been made to shed better light on inequality by the production of asset based estimates, to put alongside income based ones. But to date no widely accepted index is seen as a universal global addition to income based estimates.
  • World Economics is currently researching better ways of measuring Inequality, using India as a benchmark, but for the moment data is both old and in short supply.
Global Inequality Rankings
Index: 0-100, 0 = High Inequality; 100 = High Equality
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country Inequality
See full interactive table
Global
Rank
Inequality
Index
Poverty
% of Population




United Kingdom 66 44.3 -
Nigeria 67 44.3 53.5%
Uzbekistan 68 44.0 -
Liberia 69 44.0 40.9%
Burkina Faso 70 44.0 -
Luxembourg 71 43.8 -
Vietnam 72 43.3 1.9%
India 73 43.3 21.2%
Sierra Leone 74 43.3 40.1%
Lithuania 75 43.3 -
Romania 76 43.2 -
Georgia 77 43.0 4.5%
Italy 78 43.0 -
Gambia 79 43.0 10.1%
Yemen, Rep. 80 41.7 18.8%

Access the interactive all country Inequality table

Related Data:


 
DEBT

  • India's is officially reported as having a debt-to-GDP ratio of 84.2% by the IMF. World Economics estimates the Debt-to-GDP ratio to be in reality, a much lower 50.3%. This is due to missing elements in official Indian data, notably the vast informal economy, and the use of outdated base years. (See Data Quality and GDP Size sections above for more information).
  • The higher level of GDP used in our calculations produces a lower level of Debt-to-GDP. The recalculated level of debt is much lower than the average for developed countries, but a little higher than the Emerging Markets average.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio for Emerging Market Countries
Ranked by % of GDP
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country debt
See full interactive table
Region Global
Rank
Debt-to-GDP
Ratio




Costa Rica Americas 45 53.9%
Algeria Africa 46 53.7%
Australia Asia-Pacific 47 53.1%
Ghana Africa 48 53.0%
Pakistan Asia-Pacific 49 52.3%
Morocco Africa 50 52.3%
Gambia Africa 51 51.3%
India Asia-Pacific 52 50.3%
Ireland Europe 53 49.2%
Malaysia Asia-Pacific 54 48.6%
Colombia Americas 55 48.5%
Congo, Rep. Africa 56 48.3%
South Africa Africa 57 48.2%
Namibia Africa 58 47.7%
Netherlands Europe 59 47.5%
Asia-Pacific Average   52.5%
Emerging Markets Average   45.4%

Note:
The debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio between a country's total outstanding debt of central government and its gross domestic product (GDP).

  • With United States interest rates rising rapidly, many poor countries facing financial problems of one sort or another, and familiar worries of another emerging market crisis being voiced, it might be thought that India could be facing something of a problem.
  • But a lot has changed since previous financial panics involving emerging markets. For a start India and China (together with some other Emerging Market countries) are now far more important players in the world economy than was the case twenty or thirty years ago.

India now accounts for 9.4% of global GDP, compared with just 5.6% in 2000
% Share of global GDP
  • India's finances are as a consequence , much more robust and domestically contained than was previously the case .

Related Data:


 
POPULATION

  • India has conducted a decennial Census since 1872, so understands the importance of these data, and is very experienced in their collection. However, with such a huge population and geographic area to try to document, the job is far from easy. The next census, delayed by Covid, is due to be conducted in 2023, and it is likely to show that India has overtaken China as the world's most populous country.
  • As well as having the largest population, India also has one of the youngest, with more than half of the population aged below 25. This could produce what is often referred to as a "demographic dividend", with more people adding to a country's workforce, as well as assisting a drift from the countryside to cities and higher productivity activities, contributing to GDP growth. However productive activities must also emerge to take advantage of this situation. Lots of unemployed young people can also provide a recipe for social unrest...
India's Population Breakdown
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country Population
See full interactive table
Population
Size
(Millions)
Median
Age
(Years)
Age
Dependency
(Young)
Age
Dependency
(Old)
Age
Dependency
(Total)





China 1,444.2 38.4 25.2% 17.0% 42.2%
India 1,393.4 28.4 38.9% 9.8% 48.7%
United States 332.9 38.3 28.3% 25.6% 53.9%
Indonesia 276.4 29.7 38.3% 9.2% 47.5%
Pakistan 225.2 22.8 57.2% 7.1% 64.4%
Brazil 214.0 33.5 29.7% 13.8% 43.5%
Nigeria 211.4 18.1 80.9% 5.1% 86.0%
Bangladesh 166.3 27.6 39.3% 7.7% 47.0%
Russia 145.9 39.6 27.8% 23.5% 51.2%

Access the interactive all country Population table

  • It is likely that India will continue to be one of the world's primary drivers of global economic growth over the next decade, with its giant population, much of which remains outside formal work, and potential for rapid productivity increases providing a strong base from which to expand.

Related Data:


 
ENVIRONMENT

  • India is the 4th worst polluter in the world on the World Economics Emissions Index.
  • But (illustrating perfectly the difficulty of assessing who is to blame for pollution, and who should take action to limit it) on a per capita basis, India is a much smaller polluter, falling to 31st place in the overall listing.
  • Given that the developed countries of the world became wealthy largely by virtue of using carbon intensive energy sources over many years , it is clear that the chief culprits in assessing blame for today‚Äôs pollution levels are not those like India currently high up the list, but with low per capita ratings.
Environmental Factors
Index: 0 = High emissions, 100 = Low emissions
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country table
See full interactive version
Emissions
Index
0-100
Carbon
Emissions
Total
Carbon
Emissions
Per Capita
Methane
Emissions
Total
Methane
Emissions
Per Capita
Air
Quality
PM2.5
Water
Access
per capita





China 0.0 10,174.7 7.1 1,239.0 0.9 45.8 94.3%
United States 48.9 5,284.7 15.9 623.8 1.9 7.4 99.0%
Russia 57.3 1,678.4 11.5 853.0 5.9 9.8 97.0%
India 60.1 2,615.8 1.9 669.3 0.5 68.8 90.5%
Brazil 80.8 465.7 2.2 418.0 2.0 11.6 99.0%
Indonesia 83.4 617.5 2.2 335.1 1.2 19.1 92.4%
Mexico 92.0 438.5 3.4 145.1 1.1 22.7 99.0%
Australia 92.3 411.0 15.9 139.9 5.4 7.1 99.0%
Pakistan 92.7 248.8 1.1 151.0 0.7 58.8 90.1%
Canada 93.3 576.7 15.2 95.5 2.5 6.4 99.0%
Japan 93.7 1,106.7 8.8 21.1 0.2 13.4 99.0%

See: Access the interactive all country Environmental data table

Key:
Emissions Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Bad, 100 = Good.

Notes:
Format: Carbon data in Million MtCO2e and Methane data in MtCO2e, Air Quality: PM2.5

Methodology: Total Carbon and Total Methane data for each country has been indexed on a scale of 0-100 by using the standard deviation from the mean for each country. The implied Indexes are averaged to calculate a total Emissions Index which focuses on each countries emissions.

Related Data:


 
SOCIAL

  • India's social indicators have been advancing in a number of ways , fueled by rapid economic growth aided by Government, a thriving entrepreneurial community, and the rapid digitisation of the increasingly efficient welfare state.
  • Life expectancy is now close to the global average. Education is still limited in terms of average years spent at school, some way behind the global average. But in general progress has been made on a broad front.
  • The most striking advance has been made in lifting the very poorest members of society out of poverty. One of the most authoritative organisations working in this area - the Oxford University Poverty and Human Development Initiative - in a 2018 report, noted that 271 million Indians had moved out of poverty in the previous decade. A phenomenal change, similar in nature and scale to the advances made in China a decade earlier.
Social Factors
Index: 0 = Poor social metrics, 100 = Excellent social metrics
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country table
See full interactive version
Social
Factors
Index
Life
Expectancy
Years
Median
Age
Years
Mean Years
Schooling
Years
Spend on
Education
% of GDP
Population
in Work
Population %
Population
in Poverty
%





Pakistan 70.2 67.3 22.8 5.2 2.9% 50.2% 3.9%
Bangladesh 70.1 72.6 27.6 6.2 2.0% 56.5% 14.8%
Ghana 70.0 64.1 21.5 7.3 4.0% 64.9% 13.3%
Namibia 69.1 63.7 21.8 7.0 3.1% 47.5% 13.4%
Mauritania 67.4 64.9 20.1 4.7 2.6% 41.5% 6.0%
India 66.9 69.7 28.4 6.5 3.8% 46.7% 21.2%
Nepal 66.5 70.8 24.6 5.0 5.2% 82.6% 15.0%
Brunei Darussalam 65.9 75.9 32.3 9.1 4.4% 58.8% 43.7%
Comoros 63.0 64.3 20.4 5.1 2.5% 41.4% 17.6%
Zimbabwe 62.9 61.5 18.7 8.5 4.6% 79.0% 33.9%
Laos 62.7 67.9 24.4 5.3 2.9% 78.0% 22.7%
Gambia 62.6 62.1 17.8 3.9 2.4% 54.0% 10.1%

Access the interactive all country Social data table

Key:
Social Factors Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100
         0 = Poor social metrics, 100 = Excellent social metrics.


Related Data:


 
GOVERNANCE

  • As befits the world's largest democracy, India has a high rating for Political Rights. It also is a relatively easy place to do business in terms of the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index scale of values.
  • However, India does not score so well on the Rule of Law index, or on the Press Freedom Index.
Governance Factors Index
Index: 0 = Extremely poor governance, 100 = Good as it gets
Filter:
All
Country
Extract of country Governance
See full interactive table
Governance
Index
(0-100 Index)
Rule of Law
Index
(0-100 Index)
Press Freedom
(0-100 Index)
Political Rights
(0-100 Index)
Corruption
Perceptions
(0-100 Index)




Senegal 56.2 41.8 68.1 73.8 41.1
Malaysia 56.2 64.9 55.6 54.8 49.3
Mongolia 56.0 42.1 63.9 90.5 27.4
Suriname 55.3 46 74.4 4.8 95.9
Brazil 53.5 44.3 59.8 78.6 31.5
Qatar 53.4 73.4 52.9 21.4 65.8
United Arab Emirates 53.2 71.3 48.0 16.7 76.7
India 53.1 48.2 44.3 85.7 34.2
Peru 53.0 40.2 66.6 73.8 31.5
Burkina Faso 52.7 38.3 78.9 59.5 34.2
Dominican Republic 52.4 42.1 83.0 66.7 17.8
Lebanon 52.1 26.3 50.3 35.7 95.9
Ecuador 51.7 35.1 69.7 69.0 32.9
Lesotho 51.5 37.4 64.1 69.0 35.6
Kyrgyzstan 51.3 25.8 69.3 14.3 95.9

Access the interactive all country Governance table

Key:
Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.

Governance: 0 = Poor governance, 100 = As good as it gets.
Corruption Perceptions: 0 = Bad, 100 = Good.
Rule of Law: 0 = low rule of law, 100 = High rule of law.
Press Freedom: 0 = Low press freedom, 100 = High press freedom.
Political Rights: 0 = Low political rights, 100 = High political rights.



Related Data: